0		Hong Kong, leadership, questions

Asia Sentinel reports on Donald Tsang's lame-duck tenure

There are more than two years to go before Hong Kong acquires a new Chief Executive in place of Donald Tsang Yam-kuen. But already the administration has a lame duck look as Tsang gives the impression of tiring of being criticized and anxious to retire. Meanwhile the two most evident candidates to succeed him, Chief Secretary for Administration Henry Tang and executive council convenor Leung Chun-Ying are engaged in a very public battle for leadership in the opinion polls.

Not that the public has any direct say in who will eventually be chosen by a small group of carefully chosen Beijing-friendly selectors. It is also quite possible that Beijing has other candidates up its sleeve if one or both of the contenders makes some crucial errors over the next two years. However, the scope for new candidates to come to the fore is very limited given the undeveloped political system and reliance on either bureaucrats or Beijing-friendly members of opportunistic business families to fill top jobs. Elected politicians and successful professionals play minor roles.

Tang is very rich but his own business experience is limited. He is from one of the Shanghai textile families that were once – in the 1960s and 1970s in particular – keys to Hong Kong's prosperity. But the second generation has largely lived off selling textile quotas to companies that actually manufactured products, or from moving into the property business, an almost guaranteed path to greater wealth thanks to government land policies heavily influenced by the major developers. This pedigree may have more appeal to a princeling-friendly Beijing than outsiders would expect, especially as his Shanghainese background may find favor with a central government often suspicious of Cantonese.

Tang has a nice-guy image and an engaging smile. As a result he has largely escaped the public criticism that has fallen on Tsang, whose public approval rating was reported this week to have fallen to a low of 33 percent. However, Tang is not known either for decisive action or forward thinking. Indeed he may be best known for having been behind the abolition of taxes on wine – he has a fine personal cellar. In some ways he is similar to Tung Chee-hwa, the first post-handover chief executive, a likeable man from a well-known business family. But having had to remove the unfortunate Tung in 2005, Beijing may feel that Tang might prove equally vulnerable. He also lacks Tung's overseas connections and grandfatherly demeanor.

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