Was, Behind, Should, Have, Known

There are all kinds of conspiracies which circulate around in Thai politics. They range from the ludicrous, the Finland Plan to the somewhat hysterical - that Thaksin instigated the riot and the burning of the Thai Embassy in Cambodia.

Kazi Mahmood, who often writes as a guest columnist for Malaysia Today - see this recent article on the violence in the South, has his own website where he publishes some opinion pieces. From this about us page:

World Futures on line or WFOL as he calls it has been instituted to counter the lies which the US is spreading about Islam.

COMMENT: I just know there was going to be a conspiracy theory coming about the US being involved in the South, but I really wasn't expecting this from November 2006:

The fall of Thaksin Shinawatra as Prime Minister of Thailand is a ploy designed to bring a pro-U.S., party in power in Bangkok says fresh reports, which insist of a possible collusion between U.S. intelligence and the Thai military leaders prior to the coup of September last. These reports indicate that Thailand, a major non-NATO ally of the U.S., in the ASEAN is of utmost importance to Washington and will not be allowed to sway in any other direction, hence the removal of Thaksin from power.

COMMENT: Ok, not so bad now. I think he is wrong as I think Surayud has moved slightly towards China

The shift in Thailand's foreign policy, which was focusing on 'look east' policies coupled with a series of anti-American measures may have lead to the coup while Thaksin was visiting no other capital but Washington. World Futures is able to reveal, once again, the inner story behind Thaksin's swift removal from power and the installation of a U.S. bred former military chief as new Prime Minister.

COMMENT: Surayud US bred? Series of anti-American measures? See below for more.

The entire coup was a major success thanks to the support of the U.S., military and intelligentsia in the making of the coup. The Thai military had to wait for Thaksin to be in the U.S., to carry out the well lain plan of overthrowing a regime that showed its total independence from the U.S., in far too many occasions.

COMMENT: Perhaps, Thaksin showed his total independence from the US. Perhaps, it was this:

In December 2001, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra met with President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin L. Powell to express a willingness to contribute forces in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.
...
After much deliberation, the Thai MND offered engineering support, and, on 25 July, CENTCOM issued a formal request for a company-sized engineer unit. On 13 September, the Thai Government accepted.

Or Thailand announced that it would provide troops to assist in the humanitarian effort in Iraq - Thaksin chose to announce this during his trip to the US, to meet with President Bush, in June 2003. 443 troops arrived in Iraq in September 2003 "to conduct reconstruction tasks".

Hambali is captured in Thailand and turned over to the US. You also have the CIA black site in Thailand.

Such independence!

NOTE: The comments in this thread on the immediate aftermath of September 11 though.

In Washington, the coup was welcomed since the U.S., knew how the entire process will be carried out and who will head the caretaker government after the coup. The U.S., is now expecting a radical change in the local political landscape, with the total collapse of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) or Thai Love Thai party and the formation of a pro-U.S., regime by 2008.

COMMENT: Wait to see who will lead this pro-US regime

In fact, well before the coup was planned and organized, the anti-Thaksin opposition in Bangkok was under the influence of these powerful external forces, not satisfied with Taksin's approach toward strengthening ties with China and Russia.

COMMENT: Yeah, and what the US bred leader's visit to China earlier this year. Umm. Thaksin isn't a Hugo Chavez.

The acquisition by Singapore's Temasek Holdings of telecom giant Shin Corp raised public concerns over the deal's threat to national security, economic development and media independence.

Criticism grew after the Shinawatra and Damapong families, in a series of transactions, completed the sale of 1.48 billion Shin shares to two holding vehicles controlled by Temasek of Singapore for 73.3 billion baht.

The spin doctors from Washington, eager to interfere in the running of Thailand's local politics started to post paid articles in the local press, with commentaries by local academics and political observers. These observers criticized the sale to foreigners of radio frequencies and satellite broadcasting, which they say are national assets. They fear it could jeopardise political stability and therefore national security, hence creating a national backlash against Thaksin and his party. This ended up in the coup that forced Thaksin out.

COMMENT: Well we know some local academics and political observers are not adverse to being paid for their services, but is there any evidence the US started paying for this last year. Is this new government more US-friendly than Thaksin?

The U.S., spin doctors furthermore decided that a retiring Muslim army chief would be the right choice to lead the toppling of Thaksin, thus focusing the coup on the failure by the Thaksin regime to deal with the rebellion in the south and the growing discontent among local police officials and military army officials in the Pattani region.

COMMENT: This I don't get. He author has set up a site to counter the lies the US spreads about Islam, but he now thinks the US would but a Muslim army chief in place? I guess Prem is some US proxy.

Besides Washington, Singapore was strategically informed of the potential of a coup in Thailand. A coup that would remove Thaksin and confirm the deal of the Temasek take over of Shin Corp. The military junta and its appointed government does not have the capacity to either shed the deal between Temasek and Shin Corp. However, they have the ability to renegotiate the deal and possibly offer the Temasek a lesser share percentage to calm the spirits of the local folks in Bangkok over issues regarding the security of the country's communications network if it fell into the hands of foreign counterparts.
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With the coup, Singapore is set to win its deal with Shin Corp as the deal will never be canceled, thus ensuring Thaksin's and Damapong's families would still have a breakthrough in the deal. This financial breakthrough is currently being used by the military junta and the regime in place in Bangkok to make a new deal with Thaksin for his non-involvement in the politics of Thailand in the near future.

COMMENT: And Singapore has done so well out of this coup. Come on. You have to be kidding.

Trying to put pressure on Bangkok certain American politicians, like Rumsfield (U.S. Secretary of Defense) and Powell – a retired politician – declared, ahead of the coup, that Thaksin was unable to resolve the Southern provinces problems without external help. They urged Thailand to accept an East Timor Scenario, where the South would be allowed to decide by referendum on its future, failing which the U.S., would offer its assistance to open a military base in the South in a bid to settle the problem for Bangkok.

COMMENT: Actually, it was Thaksin who asked Rumsfeld for help - well, according to Kavi. Where are these declarations? There will be no US bases in Thailand.

Nowadays Washington is satisfied with the changes in Thailand as the Americans are sure that the future political steps of the new cabinet will coincide with the US plans in South East Asia. That's the reason why Washington is urging 'the democratic elections' thus lobbying for the rise of pro-American forces like the Democratic Party, to power.

COMMENT: The pro-American Democrat Party. You mean the same party where an MP believes the CIA is responsible for the violence in the South, or who have an official policy of neutrality. I actually don't think the Democrat Party would change things that much as well Abhisit is all rhetoric. I do wonder whether the Democrat Party with its large southern contingent would have agreed to send soldiers to Afghanistan and Iraq.

The USA is now very active in strengthening ties with Bangkok in economic spheres. The group of Thai specialists are invited to the USA by Microsoft and Boeing corporations to study the possibility of signing contracts to buy computers with Windows Vista for state agencies as well as US-made aircraft - since Airbus is now kaput.

COMMENT: Oooh. This is the evidence of better US-Thai relationships. Thais going to buy Windows Visata. I wonder what US drug companies and US government officials think about the US coup.

The Americans hope the FTA's with Thailand will proceed as expected after the military coup and that Thailand will from now on be under the control of Washington and will not move its dices towards Russia, China or elsewhere than Washington. China was to invest heavily in some projects (ports and pipelines) in Thailand while Russia was to make a strong Oil and Gas deal with Bangkok that would have given Thailand a larger role in the Oil and Gas industry in the region. Military deals between Bangkok and Beijing was also not discounted.

COMMENT: Ummm.. Don't you just love how oil is mentioned. Thailand under the control of Washington. What FTA?

Surayud Chulanont, the new Prime Minister in Bangkok is well-known for his ties with the US military circles. He was formed by a U.S., academy. It was almost certain that Surayud will be chosen as the next PM since he is popular with the locals and with Washington. His job is to plan the take over of the country by a pro-U.S., political organization in the future polls, which should be organized in early 2008.

COMMENT: What his love of China and visits there? You would think he was some US lackey. Yeah, I am sure his whole life was formed by his time in the US.

Most of the bombings in the South has the thumb print of the local military and only after suspicion grew of a possible link between local Muslim rebels (who are not in large numbers and are not well equipped to fight the military) had some contacts with Muslim rebels from Chechnya. A few of the bombs that exploded in Narathiwat were found to have had the same imprint of those used by Muslim rebels in Chechnya. This indicated – though not confirmed and denied by local insurgents who spoke to WFOL – the possibility of a stronger local rebellion against a government and a military that has been harsh on the Muslims. It also indicated that the military or the local drug mafia's in Southern Thailand were not alone in procuring bombs in the war that was going on between the police, the military and the drug and prostitution warlords.

Thaksin's regime had the intent to rid the country of drugs, prostitution and illegal gambling. This mission failed since the members of the former political elite in Thailand had allied with local mafia's and the local police (accused of being involved in drug dealing by Thaksin's government) to combat the military sent by Thaksin to clean the act in the South.

COMMENT: And the terrorists what are they doing? I mean not in large numbers. It is a guerilla insurgency, you don't need large numbers. Does the author not realise that Thaksin is a former police officer? He favoured the police not the military.

Some of the issues that made Washington turn anti-Thaksin are as follows:

The Thaksin government rejected the offer by the US to open a US military base in Southern Thailand and to later - after the base was established - allow US forces to patrol the Straits of Malacca, in the US war against terror.

The Thaksin regime also rejected any idea of a U.S. base in Southern Thailand to help the Thai forces deal with insurgency and terror in the region.

COMMENT: This is why the author thinks the US staged the coup. Thaksin wouldn't allowed a US base in Thailand. And how is progress on the US base going now some 9 months into the coup? Anywhere? No. It is going nowhere. There will be no US base.