Foreign, Business, Outlook, under, New, Government

UPDATE: Made some slight amendments.

Last week, there was a seminar in Bangkok entitled "Foreign Business outlook under the new government". A summary of some of Chris Baker's comments have been passed onto me and are listed below:

The make-up of the new government:

1. Those close to Thaksin in key posts that might affect the various court cases
2. Reward positions for PPP/TRT financiers
3. Nominees of former key TRT members
   

Baker noted that many of the MPs were small capital business owners, but not so many large CEO/big business types. He called it a defeat for the elite and the military who were behind Thaksin’s demise.

Baker commented on Samak's strengthening of his position after becoming PM:

1. Planned full 4-year term, no quick amnesty for 111 banned TRT executives, and no amendments to the constitution until the end of the term
2. Megaprojects are directly under Samak and his associate Sahat’s control. Key positions of budget bureau, police, prosecutor, council of state, intelligence apparatus are tied directly to Samak
3. Samak is Defence Minister and no deputy ministers signalling to the military that no interference
4. Samak's constant references to 1976 is done with a degree of deliberation and is to remind the royalists and military that Samak is one of them. Baker noted thatSamak’s patron when he first started politics is someone in a senior position in the palace or privy council.
   

Baker suggests that Samak’s consolidation of power may be the reason for Thaksin’s quick return to Thailand.

Baker noted that since Samak has become PM, there have been two projects that have benefited key groups of PPP supporters. These are:

1. The eco-car project, originally started by Thaksin, is now back on track. There are plans for 3 new Japanese car plants in Thailand
   
2. Agricultural consumption has also been boosted due to a renewed interest in biofuels.
   

From the CNS/military position, there are 2 theories on how to handle Thaksin

1. Exclude him
2. Reconciliation. In the meantime, Samak acts as buffer between Thaksin supporters and elite backers of the military.

Baker concludes it is business as usual.

In response to a question regarding the new government's attitude towards foreign business and investors:

1. More globalized outlook, similar to Thaksin,
2. Friendly towards business, but there will be NO reform of relevant acts. However, there will be be a more laissez-faire interpretation and enforcement
3. The international business community are cautiously optimistic
   

COMMENT: I am not so sure about Samak and Thaksin being conflict. I think this has been more for appearance stakes. None of the 4 things that Baker mentions is against Thaksin's interests. The idea of a Samak-Thaksin clash seems to have dissipated with Thaksin's return, but I don't ever think there was a rift in the first place - Thaksin didn't need to return to shore up support, a phonecall is all it will take.

I agree with Baker about the new government's attitude towards foreign business and investors. Some aspects may take time as not to alienate certain nationalistic sections of the Thai business community, but they will happen.

btw, I assume the mention of Samak's mentor is a reference to Privy Councillor Tanin Kraivixien. The Manager noted recently that Samak greatly respects Tanin. Tanin was a powerful person in the mid to late 70s, he was PM, and later was appointed a Privy Councillor.