Pojaman, Verdict, Aftermath

First, some of the foreign media.

Marwaan in IPS:

‘’It was a fair trial and the decision rendered by the court was fair,’’ Somchai Homlaor, a Thai human rights lawyer, told IPS. ‘’It confirmed that the judiciary is independent.’’

‘Thai Rath,’ the country’s largest Thai-language newspaper was more dramatic in capturing the significance of the court’s ruling. ‘’Lightening Strikes the Shinawatra Family’’ it said in a headline on its webpage above a story that broke the news about the former first lady’s legal defeat. [BP: That Thai Rath article is here]

The 51-year-old Pojaman appeared shocked when the judge ruled that she was guilty. Seated with her in the packed Bangkok Criminal Court were Thaksin and their three children. One of their daughters kept shaking her head at one point while the nearly one-and-a-half hour judgement was read.

But Pojaman was immediately released after posting 149,000 dollars in bail. And her plans to challenge the verdict, first going before the Appeals Court and then the Supreme Court, was revealed soon after.

‘’The defendants will definitely appeal. We will not comment on the verdict because it is not final,’’ Pongthep Thepkanjana, Thaksin’s spokesman, told journalists outside the court. ‘’The cases will go to the courts of appeal and the Supreme Court. It will take two to three years or more. That is the normal process.’’

Yet for the nearly 1,000 supporters of the Shinawatras who had gathered outside the courthouse on Thursday morning, the verdict triggered disappointment and, in some cases, tears. ‘’This verdict is not fair,’’ said a 48-year-old woman, who gave her name as Nun. ‘’I don’t think people who have supported Thaksin will change their mind about him after this.’’

‘’They have done a lot for our country,’’ added Nun, a scientist by training. ‘’The people who came to the court today came to cheer them.’’
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Thursday’s verdict -- that the Shinawatras are finally not above the law -- may serve as a template for more legal trouble ahead. Currently, Thaksin is facing three cases, with a possible fourth to follow.
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‘’Very few cases involving powerful political figures were taken to courts in the past. They often collapsed at the stage of investigation and inquiry because of big corruption at this stage,’’ says Somchai, the lawyer. ‘’The verdict against Pojaman should send a message to politicians and powerful officials in government that they are not above the law.’’

BP: Unlike in the other cases against Thaksin and Co to follow, this decision can be appealed as it was a matter before the Criminal Court. From what I hear you are more likely looking at 4 years before you get a Supreme Court decision.

Thai Rath notes from Thaksin's spokesman, Pongthep, that he went to hold his wife's hand after the verdict (sympathy vote) and that he flies to Japan tonight and then to the Olympics. Pojaman is off to Beijing herself.

AP:

Thaksin's spokesman, Pongthep Thepkanjana, said lawyers planned to appeal.

"Thaksin is not disheartened," he said. "They respect the court ruling but it is not the end. We will fight until the end."

The court sentenced Pojaman, her brother and secretary to two years in prison for fraud and conspiring to evade taxes. Pojaman and her brother were handed an additional one-year term for giving false testimony. All three had pleaded innocent.

"Today's ruling sends the message that this family was corrupt and cheating," said Prinya Thevanarumitkul, a political science professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University. "It is a major blow to the image of Thaksin's family. Thaksin's followers will begin to worry and lose confidence in Thaksin's future."

BP: I am not so sure. Did Sondhi L's 3 year jail sentence (that 3 year number is quite popular) affect PAD support? It is a blow, but not a major blow.

AFP:

"It's very significant for both of them. Nobody doubts this was a family matter. It will reflect on all of them," Bangkok-based analyst and Thaksin biographer Chris Baker told AFP.

"I don't think we need to take the (corruption) cases as a team effort, I think each one will be decided on its merits," he said.

"The courts here are often intimidated by people in power or who were in power and they are reluctant to convict. In this case that doesn't seem to be operating."

"It is a harbinger of things to come. It is very foreboding for Thaksin's legal process... The verdicts have gone in one direction so far," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn university in Bangkok.
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Baker said it was an "exceptionally damaging" judgement which the Shinawatra family were likely to fight as long as possible.

"It will go on -- they will use every possible means under the law, but their ability to use other methods to influence any decision now is highly limited," he said.

Reuters mentions the exile angle:

It also intensified speculation he is trying to cut a deal with prosecutors and his opponents in the military and royalist establishment to accept a period of exile rather than jail.

BBC:

Our correspondent says that as the cases pile up against the former first family, the judiciary is now being seen as perhaps the most powerful institution in the country.

BP: Couldn't he cause more trouble from abroad than from home? An exiled politician these days has access to the internet so it is very quick and easy to send mesages or record videos. Then again, Thaksin might not have so much to do with politics as Time reports:

It's also not clear how much longer Samak and his cabinet will be in office to protest against. Donavanik says if Thaksin fails to survive the legal process, it's unlikely he will continue to support the ruling People Power Party for long, and, he says, "That means other powerful players will have to step forward and fight for control."

BP: Back to the pre-2001 days or the 80s? If course if that happens money politics will disappear and we can all live happily ever after.... Thaksin could stage a Peron comeback. He might significantly reduce his financial role, but the party can't ditch him. The verdicts in the cases will have some affect, but after 15 months of listening to how bad Thaksin was under the CNS, PPP did much better than expected and I see the major contributing factor being "Thaksin fever".

I am not so sure if suddenly the pro-Thaksin folks will view the Court as being just and fair given we went through a number of years of being told of close connections between Thaksin and the Court during his role allowed him to escape punishment - direct implication was that the court was manipulated - and now the elite have control over the key institutions aside from the legislature and Cabinet so it might be viewed as manipulation in reverse. Now, if a big decision goes against a Democrat politician (think red card case) maybe then the case will be harder to make.

All cases against Thaksin have the "political element" mainly because the AEC/ASC was the investigating agency and the sheer number of cases that are being brought making it look they are going after simply him and his family beccause he is Thaksin. Nevertheless, from what I have read, it does seem clear that the prosecution had a good case against Pojaman and a guilty verdict was likely. It was more how severe the punishment would be. She could have plead guilty and her sentence would be halved, hence be in the running for a suspended sentence. She didn't and took her chances, but that is the way the cookie crumbles.

For other Thai blogger commentary, see Thai Crisis, TJTS, and Absolutely Bangkok.