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Thailand: Political Risk

 
Aug. 24 2009 - 12:03 am
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Reuters published an article on Sunday focusing on political, economic, and governance risks in Thailand. The article presents surveys from IHS Global Insight, World Bank, and Economist Intelligence Unit. In the IHS Global Insight survey, Thailand ranks last among the three other countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines) listed in terms of perceived political risk for companies. It ranks higher (tied for 2nd) in tax and legal categories, but lower (tied for 3rd) in the economic, operational, and security categories. In the World Bank governance indicators suvey, Thailand's relative world ranking has fallen over the last four years in most categories. Its regional ranking for political stability has also fallen markedly during the same period. Finally, in the EIU survey, Thailand rates very poorly on perceived vulnerability to unrest. The results of the surveys have been reformatted, with a little tweaking, and posted below (click to enlarge).

The noted surveys clearly have their own drawbacks and limitations--we could spend hours critiquing the methodologies and usefulness of each of the surveys. Nevertheless, in most instances, the surveys do provide a fairly decent gauge of what is going on in the country. In the survey results, the only major objection I have is the Cambodia rating and rank in the EIU survey. The EIU survey rates Cambodia as the most vulnerable country in the region to unrest. It is even rated higher than Pakistan! I'm not sure if this is an error in reporting or there is something going on in Cambodia that I have missed. I suspect a misreporting since the last EIU risk report on Cambodia started with, "The CPP will remain politically dominant in 2009-10. At the last general election, in July 2008, the CPP tightened its grip on power, winning 90 of the 123 seats in the National Assembly. The CPP consolidated its position in May this year, when it won around 75% of the vote in the first ever election for members of provincial and district councils." It would also have been nice if Reuters had provided a date on the IHS Survey, and expanded on the number of countries listed. Also note the choice of adjectives to describe Thaksin (fugitive).

In addition to the above report, Reuters has a long
piece on how politics is (and in some cases is not) affecting the Thai economy. Here is an excerpt,
Foreign investors are wading back into Thailand despite a three-year political crisis, stoking stock and currency gains, but economists say political unrest will limit how fast and how far Thailand pulls out of recession.

The extent of damage to the broader economy depends on how long fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra challenges Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, and whether his campaign backed by thousands of red-shirted street protesters undermines the confidence of investors and consumers.

"It can be a source of concern ahead," said Euben Paracuelles, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "Our clients are starting to ask again about politics."

So far this year, the market toll from political unrest is minimal. The baht has gained 2.32 percent against the dollar, the second-best performer among Asian currencies after Indonesia's rupiah. The benchmark stock index is up 42.3 percent, turning around from a 47.6 percent fall last year......

And in what some see as a vote of foreign confidence, Thailand received net foreign direct investment of $25.2 billion in three years to 2008, lower only than Singapore's $35.3 billion and far more than Indonesia's $6.5 billion and the Philippines' $3.5 billion, according to data compiled by HSBC.



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