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After former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra visited Cambodia and the Thai government responded by recalling the Thai Ambassador and an increase in tensions between Cambodia and Thailand, an ABAC poll noted an almost tripling of Abhisit's support, going up to 69%. As blogged at the time, one needs to be careful of paying too much attention to that poll given the very leading nature of the preceding question in the poll. While BP thought that Abhisit's popularity would be short-lived, BP did not expect it to be as short-lived as outlined by a new Bangkok University poll. The poll interviewed 1,121 people in Bangkok and the 3 surrounding provinces during November 21-22. Unsurprisingly, those polled tend to be more highly educated (43% have a university degree) and younger (only 22% are over the age of 46) who are more likely to be Democrat supporters. So there is a Democrat lean in the poll. The question asked was: "If there was an election held in 2010, who do you support between Abhisit and Thaksin?" 1. Abhisit: 30.1% BP: Actually, the wording of this question is interesting because it asks people in regard to the future - although if there was a dissolution today the election would be in 2010 anyway - but it also looks at support in regard to an upcoming election as opposed to support right now. BP wouldn't say that Abhisit has done anything specific but at a time of heightened tension with Cambodia, people were rallying around to support the PM. Now, they have moved back to the neutral camp. This poll is also Bangkok-centric. So things would likely be even if the whole country was surveyed. Thaksin isn't going away.... btw, Tumblerblog has details of polls on support of Abhisit and Thaksin from March-November in this post.
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Thaksin ain't coming back no matter how many polls they run. Nothing has changed - PTP is likely to win most seats, it might even form the government, but it can't bring back Thaksin. 24%, 30%, 40% - anything short of outright and overwhelming majority is not going to work for him. Check out Dubai Declaration - regardless of who wrote it, PAD or Thaskin, it's based on premise that simple change of government is useless for Thaksin.
@ StanG Which "Dubai Declaration" is that? Finland, maybe? By "regardless of who wrote it, Pad or Thaskin [sic]", do you mean you don't care whether it's real or fiction?
Correction. Following the link to your(?) site, I now see reference to a "Dubai Declaration" - complete with a link to The Nation's article on the alleged plan as described by secretary-general of the New Politics Party Suriyasai Katasila. All the same, given the source and without some viable confirmation, I'll be filing that report in the same place as reports of the Finland predecessor. My second question stands. I look forward to your clarification.
At this point I don't care whether it's real or fiction - it describes Thaksin's possible game plan, nothing more nothing less. According to this plan the pivotal point is a coup against Abhisit, ie security forces abandoning him and taking matter in their own hands. Anything less than that would backfire on Thaksin tremendously. It explains cancellation of the "final war" rally - they didn't have strength to pull it off and Abhisit is still firmly in control of the army and the police. If, on the other hand, it was a genuine people's movement for democracy it couldn't have been canceled on a short notice. Nah, they are just Thaksin's footsoldiers, ready to be deployed or redeployed at his will.
At this point I don't care whether it's real or fiction - it describes Thaksin's possible game plan, nothing more nothing less. According to this plan the pivotal point is a coup against Abhisit, ie security forces abandoning him and taking matter in their own hands. Anything less than that would backfire on Thaksin tremendously. It explains cancellation of the "final war" rally - they didn't have strength to pull it off and Abhisit is still firmly in control of the army and the police. If, on the other hand, it was a genuine people's movement for democracy it couldn't have been canceled on a short notice. Nah, they are just Thaksin's footsoldiers, ready to be deployed or redeployed at his will.
@ StanG So, fine by you if it is fiction - just so long as it contains stuff that you want to believe. And "nothing more nothing less? You get me wondering (amongst other things) just what could be "less" than a "possible game plan" that might as well be fiction for all you care..... That's as logical as the rest of the non-sequiturs you go on to assemble.
I don't understand what exactly you are arguing against - everybody and his dog has a possible scenario for Thaksin's next steps. Strictly speaking they are all works of fiction. I find the details of this plan that are interesting, not its origin. Does Thaksin really rely on a coup against Abhisit? I say it's possible that he canceled the red rally because chances of provoking a coup were very slim. I don't care who came up with this idea first, PAD or Thaksin himself, it makes sense regardless. |
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