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UPDATE: 19:55 YouTube video of Central World on fire. UPDATE: 19:13: Charnvit Kasetsiri, a prominent political historian who specialises in modern political movement, described the latest phenomenon to Reuters as "the most widespread and most uncontrollable" political violence Thailand has ever seen. UPDATE: 18:50: From Reuters live blog:
UPDATE: 18:21 Now, we just have patriotic songs on all free-to-air channels and the local equivalent of CNN. BBC and CNN still broadcasting normally: BBC backgrounder:
UPDATE: 18:15: Photo of one of Thailand's largest shopping centres, Central World which is right at the protest site, on fire and well there is no saving it. BP: Photo is from BBC's correspondent in BBC Alistair Leithead. UPDATE: 18:00: Simon Roughneen has a piece in The Irrawaddy on what he saw during the crackdown and in the aftermath:
BP: Some photos too. UPDATE: 17:00: CRES, the entity set up to adminster the state of emergency, have just had an announcement. Panitan, acting government spokesman, was speaking in Thai and have summarized what he said. He asked people to stay at home between 8pm-6am for the curfew. He said the curfew would enable the authorities to handle the situation more efficiently. He said all TV will be broadcasting special programs simoultaneously under the authority of the government. The red leaders have surrendered, it is time to stop all activities and enter the road map reconcilitation process. Then speaking in English, there are a "few pockets of trouble". Govt has declared curfew from 8pm-6am Panitan: For those who need to travel tonight, please bring with you your passport & tickets, we will assist u in returning home safely UPDATE: 16:35: The Bangkok Post front page from May 19, 1992 (exactly 18 years ago today) was "Chamlong arrested", "Dead bodies pile up", "Buildings set on fire" and the main headline "Bloody battles rage in city". BP: Sounds eerie familiar... UPDATE: 16:25: From FCCT:
UPDATE: 16:05: CRES officially announces a curfew for Bangkok for tonight only from 8 p.m.-6 a.m. Curfew means stay indoors. This regulation is issued pursuant to the SOE so there are criminal penalties for those who do not comply. UPDATE: 15:55: Reuters:
BP: As of now, the situation is very quickly getting out of control. Protesters are at different locations throughout Bangkok and in at least one provinicial hall building upcountry (ThaiPBS reports fire set to provincial building in Khon Kaen) UPDATE: 15:35 NYT:
BP: Some protesters have surrendered, others are not. There is no control over what the rest will do. UPDATE: 15:27: AFP reports:
UPDATE: 14:18: AP reports:
UPDATE 14:10: AP:
BP: So what now? UPDATE: 14:00: Ok, back now. The red leaders and many protesters have surrendered. Will provide more details at they come to hand. UPDATE: 8:50: From Reuters live blog:
UPDATE: 8:30: From Reuters live blog:
UPDATE: 8:07: From Reuters live blog:
UPDATE: 8:05: ThaiPBS reporter on live cross at Sala Daeng. You can hear gunfire/firing of something in the background UPDATE: 7:59: A message from a well-respected Thai journalist:
BP: Not sure that posting this will help get the message to some red shirts, but well not much one can do. UPDATE: 7:48: From Alistair Leithead of BBC who is on the ground within the protest zone tweets:
UPDATE: 7:45: AP:
BP: UPDATE: 7:30: Seh U/Gen Lertlad, Appointed Senator & was acting as mediator last night, is interviewed on Ch 3. He estimates 100 dead; 1000+ injuries if military goes in with brute force. He says he is also worried of what will happen upcountry if brute force is used and is of the view that things could get out of control very quickly. He said he has been getting phonecalls all morning from friends in the military who want him to try to stop the crackdown. UDPATE: 7:13: From Reuters live blog:
UPDATE: 7:05: ThaiPBS channel is showing smoke throughout Bangkok from burning tires UPDATE: 6:55: Reuters have a live blog and it is being regularly updated. The military have yet to go in. UPDATE: 6:35: AFP telephone Col. Sansern to ask what is happening. The answer "I will not answer any questions," UPDATE: 6:20: ThaiPBS reporter states at Sala Daeng hearing a military loud speaker as giving reds 15 minutes to leave... UPDATE: 5:25: Matichon reports that Chami S, a list Democrat MP and head of the Democrats War Room, as stating that the 35 deaths so far is quite low and is viewed that the government has the advantage because it is just soliders entering the fringe of the protest area where the protesters hae weapons and are firing on soldiers (นายชำนิ ศักดิเศรษฐ์ ส.ส.สัดส่วน ปชป.เป็นประธานประชุมคณะทำงานติดตามเพื่อประเมินสถานการณ์ทางการเมือง หรือวอร์รูป ปชป. เมื่อวันที่ 17 พฤษภาคม โดยที่ประชุมประเมินว่า สถานการณ์ขณะนี้ถือว่าอยู่ในภาวะสงคราม จึงจำเป็นต้องประเมินแบบวันต่อวัน แม้ปฏิบัติการของทหารจะทำให้มีผู้เสียชีวิตอย่างน้อย 35 คน แต่ยังไม่ถือว่า รัฐบาลเสียเปรียบ เพราะเพียงแค่ทหารเข้าไปบริเวณตะเข็บที่ชุมนุมก็มีกองกำลังติดอาวุธยิงใส่ทหาร) and this means the government still has an opportunity to change the game by proving that the deaths came from the protesters and was not the work of soldiers (ทำให้รัฐบาลยังมีพอโอกาสพลิกเกมได้ โดยการพิสูจน์ว่า ผู้เสียชีวิตเกิดจากฝีมือกองกำลังติดอาวุธ ไม่ใช่ฝีมือทหาร). "Chami has told the Democrat spokesman to give daily press conferences to counter the Puea Thai news and that each time they need to state that all the problems today arise from Thaksin and if Thaksin orders the situation to stop then the situation will be over" a source states: A source within the Democrat War Room states that that the protests will likely last another week and the 35 deaths is acceptable because we have estimated 200-500 deaths (ข่าวแจ้งอีกว่า วอร์รูม ปชป.ยังประเมินว่า สถานการณ์ชุมนุมน่าจะยืดเยื้อต่อไปอีกไม่น้อยกว่า 1 สัปดาห์ โดยจำนวนผู้เสียชีวิตที่ 35 คนถือว่ายังยอมรับได้ เพราะเดิมคาดว่าจะเสียชีวิต 200-500 คน). In regards to the coalition partners abandoning the government, this is unlikely as Bhum Jai Thai still supports the government. UPDATE 5:15: Thai Rath reports that at 1:30 a.m. a M79 grenade was fired into a red shirt satelite protest held at Soi Ngahm Duplee injuring 4 protesters. From investigations, at the time the protesters were throwing pring-pong bombs at the soldiers. Nattawut announced at 4 a.m. that the military would crackdown at 6 a.m and disperse the protesters. On the stage, they asked that children be moved to the adjacent temple. There is video of Thai TV (TNN only - Channel 5 are replaying the Pongpat speech) of Armoured Personnel Carriers and buses of troops, vehicles to detain protesters moving closer to the protest site. From Reuters "Thai protest leader expects battle as army troops gather near protest site". BP: Rumours were spreading that the military would crackdown at 5 a.m. and disperse the protesters. Is this just a show of force? Or the beginning of a real crackdown and dispersal?
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"we have estimated 200-500 deaths" Ah, that's where the "500 terrorists" figure comes from.
IMHO, this conflict has never been about democracy or any thing connected with democracy. It is a fight between elite power groups. I do believe that the red shirt supporters are being feed many lies mixed in with some truth. I do believe that the Thai citizens are being used as canon fodder for both sides. The only losers are the people fighting the fight in the trenches. The winners are both sides of the power elite, as they will still have their power and money when this is all over, only to start up again some time in the future.
Tiananmen II appears to be underway as I write. Unfortunately for this government there are a lot more cameras and the Internet.Whatever the results, it is difficult to see how the PM can stick around much longer.
Of course, there would be no negotiation. The whole purpose of the crackdown is to make sure no rural horde can descend upon Bangkok again. The Dem and the elites need to secure Bangkok for Bangkokian protesters only. What purpose would a negotiation serve beside a cease fire and allow RED to gather people again? Now, the RED can do two things: run or reinforce. If they run, the RED lost. In the future, any rural protester trying to come to Bangkok would be met with fierce propaganda campaign and PAD protesters. If they reinforce, they can call in more protester from rural area. But the only way to win is an actual armed revolution. Even if the government lost an actual shoot out revolution, they still got two more cards: royal amnesty and UN intervention (ironic, isn't it?)
News agencies should be interviewing military and urban warfare experts, asking them "if a government was facing a diverse mix of protestors, the majority of which are peaceful and unarmed, many of which are fighting with homemade weapons, a several which appeared to be trained and armed with assault weapons, what is the best course of action to take control of the situation and minimize losses?". I wonder if the answer would be the plan chosen by the Thai government. If anyone can find an answer or interview like this, please link. Thanks.
There is no excuse for burning all of this building.It is definitely a wrong thing to do. But there is an explanation. IMO, in all protest there are non-violent party and a violent one. Since this protest was squeezed very hard (considered all weapons used)This violence fraction is in a deep rage. With all of those rage they do all of this crazy thing. Again, this is a criminal thing to do but we need to understand why instead of just brush it off as "red are bad" thing. Since the same situation also happened in Yellow camp, as we saw an evidence (to much less damaging degree) from the trash of government house when they moved out. On political front, I'm certain that we will hear the news/rumors that it's an evil plan of Thaksin. BTW? Should this all big building has a automatic fire extinguisher system?
What a strange choice of words : "fought on" by burning shopping malls" ? Is Mr Roughneen implying that torching the malls are a legitimate way of fighting back against the government ? So, with all the sarcasm about the government's claims about 'terrorists' among the Reds, I'm surprised that none of the Red cheerleaders are now insinuating that the Government and the Army are behind the arson of the shopping malls. |
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