Can, the, Democr

The Nation:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday reaffirmed his prediction that the Democrats might win about 240 House seats at the next general election, which could give him the chance to lead the coalition for a second term.

"There are a large number of undecided votes that the Democrats could sway," he said, explaining his upbeat forecast.

The party currently has 172 House seats, but the PM said he predicted they may gain votes in the next poll as he sensed they could tap into undecided votes. Abac Poll results had suggested this was possible.

Abhisit said he strongly felt that undecided voters would swing in the government's favour about one to two weeks ahead of the polls.

Commenting on his low popularity rating in the capital, he said it was normal for Bangkok voters to treat an incumbent prime minister with scepticism. In past elections, Bangkok votes would swing three to four days before the election day to allow the Democrats to overtake their rivals, he said.

BP: Hmm, well normally from a political science and polling perspective the majority of undecided voters vote against the incumbent so it is just as likely, if not more likely, that the undecideds would favour Puea Thai over the Democrats. Polls before the 2007 General Election showed the Democrats leading Puea Thai so there was not a general swing for the Democrats in the final weeks. If anything, there was a swing away from the Democrats although that was partly the Thaksin fever of the final weeks of polling which may not be replicated again.

On the poll in question, it was an ABAC poll surveying 5,470 people in between January 20-February 5 in 28 provinces (กรุงเทพมหานคร สระบุรี ปทุมธานี สมุทรปราการ  นครนายก สระแก้ว ชลบุรี ขอนแก่น อำนาจเจริญ ศรีสะเกษ อุบลราชธานี เลย หนองคาย กาฬสินธุ์  เพชรบูรณ์ พะเยา เชียงราย เชียงใหม่ อุทัยธานี สุโขทัย สมุทรสาคร ราชบุรี นครปฐม สุราษฎร์ธานี  นครศรี ธรรมราช  ยะลา ปัตตานีและสงขล).

Question 1. Do you support Abhisit or do you support other politicians?

• Abhisit: 28.6%
• Others: 24.9%
• Neutral: 46.5%

Breakdown by region:

BP: None of these figures are particularly surprising.

Question 2: If there was an election today, who would you cast your party list vote for?

• Democrats: 29.5%
• Other parties: 33.6%
• Undecided: 36.9%

Breakdown by region:

BP: You will see that Abhisit beats other politicians, but other parties beat the Democrats (i.e. Abhisit does better than his party), but it is interesting that the drop in the undecideds from question 1 (46.5 percent) to question 2 (36.9 percent) results in the Abhisit to Democrat vote remaining mostly the same with 90 percent of those who are undecided about which politician to support deciding to vote for the "other parties". This is not to say the other parties will pick up 90 percent of the remaining undecideds, they won't, but it is still interesting.

Annoyingly, ABAC didn't specify the "other parties" into individual parties. It should be remembered that at the 2007 General Election that the Democrats and the pro-Thaksin PPP were neck-and-neck on the party list vote and it was the constituency vote where Puea Thai came ahead. Assuming the other parties vote is mainly for Puea Thai as per this recent other poll and given ABAC polls generally overstate support for the Democrats by 2-3 points, not much appears to have changed in the last two-and-a-bit years. Now, who will win the undecideds?