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BP: Agree. It is not really Thaksin, the individual, but what he "represents" - this also applies to what his detractors think he represents. A new poll shows that Abhisit's popularity was short-lived with previous supporters moving back to the "neutral" column while Thaksin's popuarlity varies within a much narrower bandwidth. So far Thaksin does not seem to have suffered much damage from his Cambodian trip, but BP thinks Abhisit still has some chances to improve his support though in persuading some of the neutrals. He just needs the economy to turn around...
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One thing that you dont mention re: Abhisit's potential popularity is that a massive swath of the Thai population had their democratic choice for the last government completely usurped with Abhisit as the main cheerleader. This will not be forgotten and I think the "Democrats" (why do they insist on calling themselves that??) would be spanked even if Abhisit manages to pull off a minor miracle and turn into someone of gravitas, depth or ability. He has had plenty of chances to create genuine unity since the judicial coup that took him to power but is either too naive or two Yellow to do so effectively. His only gambit so far has been to almost start a war with Cambodia. Genius. And if Thailand had gone to war his popularity would've lasted as long as it took for the Thai body bags to start piling up. Given the background and recent history of Cambodian armed conflict (killing each other in huge numbers via gritty determined guerilla warfare) set against that of Thailand's military (shooting civilians) that would've taken about 5minutes. The other point with the Cambodian thing was that Thailand made a big noise about being the "senior" more developed and civilised party and then reacted like a stood-up teenage hairdresser. Abhisit suffered the indignity of making Hun Sen look statesmanlike. No one should be seduced by Abhisit's much heralded education and background. It does not automatically mean he is somehow either more committed to democracy and democratic values or is a cut above the rest. For anyone who has lived in the UK and had to suffer generations of braying Eton and Oxbridge educated dimwits (most of whom might be well-educated but have had the cards so far stacked in their favour they'd have to be a congenital idiot to not make something of themselves) effing up the country, we tend to see straight through these people for who they are. Of course such Eton types do have their supporters in the UK press but mainly from those who went to the same schools etc. It's all very self-serving. So Thaksin's popularity is a moot point. The values he is perceived to represent (democracy, wealth re-distribution, universal healthcare) and far more potent than a simpering, posh boy who looks completely out of his depth. In any functioning democracy Abhisit's rule would spell the end of his party's grip on power for a generation or two. But this is Thailand....
If reds really cared about what Thaksin allegedly represents their party wouldn't be run by Samak, Chalerm and Chavalit. Thaksin took a 10% hit from pre-Cambodian polls, btw.
StanG Samak is dead.
Last year he got the party helm from the hands of Chaturon, the new "hope" for Thai democracy. Chaturon is supposed to represent 1976 generation.
StanG Still doesn't stop him being dead
And that still doesn't change the fact that Chaturon handed him the party that supposed to uphold the ideals of 1976 generation. Not to forget Surapong who served in Samak's cabinet himself. |
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