First, they, came, BBB....

Now, in many countries it is a criminal offence to knowingly disseminate false information about a stock (usually it is that a stock will go up). The disseminator then usually makes money off the stock when the price does go up. In the instance of securities fraud, the person will post the information in advance (ie before there is a change in stock price).

In the instance of the two arrested on Sunday for allegedly spreading rumours about HM the King's Health, the papers suggest this is the case. The Bangkok Post:

It's alleged the two accused spread false information about the health, possibly with the intention of manipulating the share market for profit.

Yet, in the same article, we have this from Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva:

So far, investigators have no evidence the two suspects had benefited from the fall in the stock market, he said.

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij is quoted in Daily News as also saying that the police have found no no unusual transactions by the two people arrested (ได้ตรวจสอบข้อมูลการซื้อขายหุ้นไม่พบความผิดปกติ) (Kom Chad Luek also reports the same).

The reason why the authorities are pursuing them under Section 14(2) of the Computer Crimes Act as that falls under "national security".

So as because they can find no information that the two personally benefited, what do you think the line of inquiry is that they are pursuing now? Well it is of course to suggest there is some grand conspiracy (yes, seriously). The Nation:

An ongoing investigation by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) has suggested that there were coordinated efforts to attack Thai stock market with inauspicious rumours.
...
"The efforts involve persons, juristic persons, local news agencies and foreign news agencies," DSI director general Tharit Pengdit said Monday.

BP: What the evidence is for this, we are not told, but a conspiracy is always the easiest answer! Their answer is pursue the line of inquiry that they were hired by the evil one, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Krungthep Turakit refers to everyone as the 'แก๊ง"ทุบหุ้น"' (the gang that beats down stocks)

BP has already debunked the story that Bloomberg was somehow responsible for the fall of the stock market (seriously, why can't people separate reporting on the rumor versus reporting that the rumor caused the stock market to fall - no one actually even doubts that the stock market fall on the actual rumors), but the important question is exactly what did the two arrested persons post and what time did they post their messages?

The Bangkok Post reports on where they posted their messages:

Police plan to arrest another two people on charges of spreading false rumours about His Majesty the King's health that led to a share sell-off last month, Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) deputy chief Pol Maj-Gen Panya Mamen said on Monday.

The two suspects were found to have posted information relating to the rumors on the websites www.prachatai.com and www.sameskybooks.org, he said.

Khao Sod reports that one of the arrested, Thiranan Vipuchanan, posted a message to Prachatai using the username "BBB" and it was a translation into Thai of a Bloomberg news article. BP has done a few different searches and the only message posted by user BBB is one posted at 18:09 on October 14 (ie after the market had closed). It is simply a partial translation of the Bloomberg news article. Unfortunately, the original post is no longer available, but Google cache has a copy here.

BP: Have read through a number of Thai language newspaper reports on this and there is no report to suggest this is not the post concerned (see now also Thaweeporn Kummetha of The Nation also has same details as the Prachatai post).

For the poster to Fah Diew Gun, Katha Pajajiriyapong, BP cannot find any online newspaper report stating Katha's username at Fah Diew Gun. However, Thammasat University academic Somsak Jeamteerasakul posts at Fah Diew Gun that MCOT news reported last night that the user name is "wet dream" (well one shouldn't be arrested for having a corny user name). A search of Fah Fiew Gun shows a post by user "wet dream" at 3:27pm on October 14. The topic ID at SameSky for the post is 38507. One can of course search Google for "wet dream samesky" if one wants to find the post. The post refers to health rumours causing the market to fall 24.55 points by 3:05pm. It does not advocate selling, but does state that "investors seem to be preparing for changes" in response to the market fall. The title of the post at Fah Diew Gun does go further than the Bloomberg line mentioning merely bad health, but won't say the specific word.

BP: Remember Bloomberg's article was released at 3:38pm and the market actually went up after this.

So why have the authorities gone after two people who posted at Practhatai and Fah Diew Gun webboards, but not after Bloomberg, the foreign wires, or any of the Thai media (or even Pantip [the largest Thai webboard])? We have this from The Nation on both Prachatai and Fah Diew Gun:

Both websites are known for their strong political stance and sympathy for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Then this quote by Korn in Matichon is illuminating:

"ใน ส่วนของเว็บไซต์ที่เผยแพร่ข้อมูลนั้น ที่ผ่านมามักจะมีบทบาทเผยแพร่ข้อมูลล่อแหลมทั้งต่อการเมืองและความมั่นคงของ ประเทศ และครั้งนี้ก็คงนำเสนอข้อมูลที่ผิดสังเกตจนนำไปสู่การจับกุมของตำรวจ ซึ่งน่าจะเป็นบทเรียนในอนาคต ส่วนจะถึงขั้นสั่งปิดเว็บหรือไม่ คงต้องขึ้นกับกระทรวงไอซีทีและกฎหมายที่เกี่ยวข้อง"

["For the websites who disseminated the information, in the past they usually have the role of disseminating dangerous/dicey information about politics and national security. This time it is unusual to the extent that they are arrested by the police. It is likely a lesson for the future.* Regarding closing down the websites, it will be up to the Ministry of ICT and related laws"]

BP: Yes, he said the above. That is a direct quote. Look at the example of Thiranun, she was arrested at the airport where by some coincidence the media were already waiting with the police. The result is that her name, full address, and her picture is all throughout the Thai papers and she is labeled as someone who spreads rumors about HM the King's health.

BP doesn't know what Korn was thinking when he made the statement, but is it unreasonable to take it is a warning? Matichon reports that Korn was asked by reporters whether simply translating foreign news articles was sufficient reason to make arrests, to which Korn responded that the foreign media reported what the Thai also reported and that was the rumor caused the stock market to fall. On this, we must be careful. However, he said he has not seen the content of the messages posted by the two people arrested and did not know whether they contained any additional information as they had been deleted.

BP: Can someone send Korn a link then to this post. Both posts can be found on the internet.

Now, to manipulate the stock market, one has to disseminate the information in advance of any change in the price, but in the instance of the two persons arrested the only posts that BP can find are posts after the fall and reporting that the stock market fell because of the rumors, which is line with Thai and foreign news reports. This is not the instance of persons going around stating "sell! sell! sell!", it is "stock market fell because of xxxx". Why this double standard and will the Thai authorities go and arrest journalists? Will the Thai media stay silent? Do they consider translating a foreign news report to be a crime? How many more will be arrested?

Something that BP doesn't understand is the need to find a conspiracy. The authorities seem to think that the only reason for the posts of the two persons arrested was to make money, but surely there is another possibility, namely that the stock market fell and they had an explanation as to why.

h/t to a reader

Just after finished this post, see this article at The Nation. Some very good quotes there.

btw, if you don't understand the title of the post then see here.

*Edited translation