Newin, Thaksin, red shirts,

Ok, ok, Thanong is the only source, but still amusing to see him getting worked up about this. His first post:

What should Abhisit have done under the current circumstances? Here are his limited options:

1. Re-evaluate the crisis situation. Don't underestimate the Red Shirts' rally, which could turn violent. Admit the fact that the Democrat-led coalition is about to end.

2. Free up the coalition partners because they are going to desert him away. Newin has gone abroad to see Thaksin Shinawatra. Banharn will withdraw his support of the coalition partner. Abhisit can then muster his power by running a minority government and take control of all the important ministries.
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Thaksin's strategy can be observed as follows:

 1. Rallying as many Red Shirts protesters as possible for the final battle. The figure remains fluid. The show-up could 250,000 or 800,000 to more than one million.

2. It will be very difficult to manage this huge crowd. Chaturon Chaisaeng will be the commander of the Red Shirts on the grounds, while Thaksin will take charge from somewhere outside the country. Chaturon will serve as deputy prime minister in case the Pheu Thai manages to stage a parliamentary coup by getting support from the defected Bhumjai Thai and Chat Thai Pattana (see previous blog on secret plot to support Maj Gen Sanan as PM).

3. Driving a wedge into the coalition government by launching a no-confidence motion to bring down the Abhisit government. Newin Chidchob has already struck a deal with Thaksin. Banharn Silapa-archa of the Chat Thai Pattana is ready to jump ship.

BP: Big problem and that is Chaturon is banned from holding a political position for five years so he can't be Deputy PM without an amnesty for Thai Rak Thai executives....

Thanong's second post:

Newin Chidchob is wavering. He has run away to London. Maybe he is not sure which side will win. But the other Bhumjai Thai MPs are worried that they are left alone to face the Red Shirts wrath in Bangkok.
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The big business groups such as banking, beer or chickens are making some direct contact with red camps -- just in case.

BP: To be honest, who knows what is happening behind-the-scenes. Chat Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai openly complain about the Democrats, but is this because they want to switch sides or because they are trying to negotiate to get more from the Democrats? BP still sees it is the latter. It is hard to know as very little of the inside information makes it into the public domain. The rumors you hear vary so wildly that it is hard to discern. For most of 2008 there were rumors of Newin leaving Thaksin. This went on for eight months then at the end, he did switch. Honestly, BP thinks that Chat Thai Pattana would be easier to persuade to switch then Newin. More for the reason that Thaksin would want to spite Newin for leaving the pro-Thaksin party fold.

A large-scale protest devoid of bloodshed which politically scares some of the coalition partners and the business community may result in a change of government. BP still thinks the better odds are with the Democrats continuing in government. The upcoming no-confidence debate is Puea Thai's best chance to form a government so the Red Shirts and Puea Thai are pushing full throttle.

If you are wanting to know the rationale for switching sides, well, Chat Thai Pattana and others will argue that Puea Thai and the Democrats are too divisive and neither can govern with the PM being one of the parties, but they can argue that to allow a non-Puea Thai MP to become PM will bring about more Cabinet positions and the ability to get money for the next election reconciliation etc...