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Location: Bangkok, Thailand

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Predictions on red shirt protest numbers

Predictions on red shirt protest numbers
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Mar. 10 2010 - 11:00 am
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The Bangkok Post:

The UDD says it will be able to gather one million protesters, but the committee chaired by Mr Suthep expected only a six-figure turnout.

BP: Only six figures? Now, you see what kind of numbers we are looking at. As that could be 500k.

An editorial in The Nation:

Some intelligence officials have estimated the red shirts crowd at 150,000 coming from the upcountry. If the Bangkok cells are included, we'll have another 100,000 to make it the total of 250,000. But others fear these figures are underestimated because the rallies could bring in more red-shirt supporters.

BP: Classic The Nation to refer to the red shirts as cells....

NOTE: Actually, think he unfairly criticizes the Abhisit government for not doing enough. What can Abhisit do? Nothing.

Thanong in The Nation:

Rallying as many Red Shirts protesters as possible for the final battle. The figure remains fluid. The show-up could be 250,000 or 800,000 to more than one million.

Bangkok Metropolitan Administration Permanent Secretary Pongsak Semsan is quoted in Khao Sod as stating that security officials have estimated that the red shirts will gather in 7-9 places, that security officials estimated between 120,000 and 1,000,000 people (ประเมินตัวเลขผู้ชุมนุมต่ำสุดอยู่ที่ 120,000 คน สูงสุด 1 ล้านคน) and 100,000 vehicles.

Thai Rath reports Deputy Interior Minister Boonjong as stating that the Interior Ministry estimates that there will be more than 100,000 protesters and that this will be the largest protest (โดยประเมินว่าจะมีประชาชนเดินทางมาร่วมชุมนุมที่กทม. มากกว่า 1 แสนคน และถือว่ามากกว่าการชุมนุมทุกครั้ง).

Naew Na quotes government spokesman Panitan as stating there will be a minimum of 100,000 protestors, but on how many more, this is still being evaluated (ตัวเลขผู้ที่มาชุมนุมอย่างต่ำน่าจะเกิน 100,000 คนขึ้นไป แต่สูงกว่าเท่าไหร่นั้นกำลังพิจารณาอยู่).

BP: To make a real statement, the red shirts need 200,000+. This would be the largest political protest since Black May 1992.



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Comments



by Anonymous
on 03/10/2010 11:43 am

BP: Why don't you draft a manifesto for the Reds after 200,000+ of them show up.


by Anonymous
on 03/10/2010 12:42 pm

It strikes me that for all the increasingly paranoid rhetoric from the government and the Nation, what probably scares them the most is that around 300,000 people could rally peacefully in Bangkok, send the message that we are just over 18 months away from an election that the current administration look unlikely to win - and then just go home. By contrast, violence, bombs, etc. would just strengthen the Democrats' and the army's hand.


by Qualtrough
on 03/10/2010 01:36 pm

Bangkok Metropolitan Administration Permanent Secretary Pongsak Semsan estimates the number of protesters will be in the range of 120,000 to 1,000,000. I think he is wrong. My educated guess is that between 20,000 and 2,000,000 will show up, but that is as precise as I am willing to go.


by Zolt
on 03/10/2010 06:08 pm

The situation in short: Nobody has any clue about anything whatsoever. This doesn't prevent them from making "informed" statements though. Fear-mongering at it's best.




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