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Wassana in the Bangkok Post refers (link fixed) a new "civil war is coming" article by staunch anti-Thaksinite Chirmsak - who has been given his own show on Channel 11. Prem apparently has been telling people the article is a must read, but then Wassana notes:
BP: BP remembers back to July 2006 when Prem wearing the uniform and telling the soldiers to be loyal. At the time, BP did wonder on the meaning of it all - the idea of a coup back then seem far-fetched - but we now have the three musketeers in the last paragraph meeting Prem. We have them worried about civil war. There are certainly deep divisions in the country on a number of issues. Prem and his crew seem very worried now that they will lose. btw, You will see that Abhisit's candidate of Pateep went to see Prem, but not the candidate of the "powerful and mighty backer" who was in Germany. Not sure if we can really draw any more conclusions. btw, also see Yoon has some comments here. Note ASTV Manager headline he mentions.
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I wonder if the strong and healthy Prem was recruiting new personal assistants when he visited the cadets?
The more this whole situation drags the more I am minded to believe that Thaksin is actually the Thai elite's only hope. Thaksin is in no way a genuine progressive (nearly all of his progressive policies were formulated by the left leaning elements in the TRT coalition) and his interests are far closer aligned to the Thai elites than any poor Isaan farmer. Yet, by keeping Thaksin out of the frame, any moderating influence on the demands of Thailands social reformers pushes them directly towards something far more revolutionary. Civil war is a long way off but plenty of feeling in the country talks of the need for some kind of reckoning. If Thaksin has been completely defeated then his influence will have waned and will likely be replaced by serious extremism. The only certain thing I have ever learnt about Thai politics is that one should pick the most unlikely scenario and it will likely come true. Thaksin to return by 2010's end - photos of Prem and Mr T shaking hands and smiling soon to follow.
It's difficult for an outsider to understand the power that Prem holds in Thailand.....but the photograph of the 3 military chiefs at rigid attention tells it all! Photos such as these remind me of the power that the military junta holds in Burma.
just want to provide link to Chirmsak's article that Prem recommends (in Thai): เรากำลังอยู่ในยุค "สงครามกลางเมือง"! http://www.naewna.com/news.asp?ID=193202
There are many steps to a real shooting civil war. I don't think we are there yet. For the time being, it is most likely to be the armed state versus unarmed out-of-power groups. The only credible civil war scenario is for the army to actually split and then start shooting at each other. A short coup is more likely. A long drawn-out civil war is not very likely, unless the factions are backed by some great foreign powers (Cambodia doesn't count)that provide arms. Thailand is not self-sufficient in munitions, I would think.
FWIW in yesterday's Nation Gen Anupong was saying there wouldn't be a coup. The Nation gave this article the wonderful headline of "Army Determined to Prevent Bloodshed and Coup", which is a bit like saying I'm determined to prevent myself from punching you in the face. article here: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/12/29/politics/politics_30119397.php |
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