0		Succession:, issue, that, won't, away

The issue of succession is viewed as core to the ongoing political tensions in Thailand. It has been speculated that it was one of the real reasons for the coup. Many a Shawn W Crispin article has raised the issue of succession see here and here. BP's most recent post on the issue, "Succession: The White Elephant in the Room", is probably the most relevant background blog piece. As noted in that post, Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva added some clarity that the Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn is the desginated heir apparent.

With HM the King Bhumibol Adulyadej's hospitalization, the issue has arisen again and the joy of people seeing HM the King last week, it will not be long before something else happens that causes the succession issue or worries of what will happen next arises.

Crispin had an article in the Asia Times a week or so ago and have been mulling over since then. The first key excerpt:

Bhumibol has over the past year signaled that his heir apparent son, 57-year-old Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, should be crowned the 10th king of the reigning Chakri dynasty, which dates to the late 18th century and continues to play a strong symbolic and legal leadership role in Thai society.

...
Recent royal signals have dampened earlier speculation among diplomats and analysts that Bhumibol would opt instead for his popular second-born daughter, Princess Chakri Sirindhorn, to inherit the throne. Other speculation that a regency - led first by Queen Sirikit and perhaps later by Sirindhorn - that bypassed Vajiralongkorn and reigned while his four-year-old son, Prince Dipangkorn Rasmijoti, came of age has also been widely discounted - though not entirely discarded.

... [below paragraph appears later but is added here for relevance]

Top army loyalty to Queen Sirikit will thus be pivotal to managing the eventual transition and maintaining continuity during the long or short interregnum between Bhumibol and Vajiralongkorn. According to palace insiders, Sirikit has strongly supported her son's eventual rise to the throne and many expect her to remain influential even after he is formally crowned.

BP: Agree. From BP's own discussions with others and information that BP has heard from a number of well-informed sources it seems that it definitely will be the Crown Prince that inherits the throne. The Prem Tinsulanonda (head of Privy Council) long-term regency idea - as suggested by some - is also very unlikely as one can see from Crispin not even discussing it.

Unfortunately, on this subject, it is difficult to explain one's reasonings without getting oneself in trouble so you will just have to rely on BP's analysis. Will say this, Prem is 90 next year and the zenith of his power was at the end of 2006. The network monarchy with Prem as the dominant player was then, but with the powerful and mighty backer (there is a hint, it is not Prem) and public knowledge of the police chief appointment issue, one can see there is not just Prem. There have been other non-public instances of the powerful and mighty backer playing a similiar role. Prem's name has also largely been kept out of the Democrat government formation and recent appointments issues. This is not just in deference to Prem, it is just that we are no longer in pre-2007 mode anymore. So would say 75% the Crown Prince will be the successor and all other alternatives at 25%.

Actually, discussion is more centred not on who, but what will happen next and the timing. Crispin looks at this:

A period of national mourning, which will undoubtedly bring the kingdom to an introspective halt and according to some estimates could last ceremonially for as long as 999 days.
...
How royal authority is vested and exercised during the period of mourning and between the proclamation, parliamentary approval for and actual crowning of the next king will be pivotal to future stability. It's not clear to some diplomats monitoring the situation that there is a coherent plan in place to manage the inevitable power vacuum that will open with Bhumibol's passing. ...Some monitoring the situation believe the Privy Council could announce a multi-year mourning period to help ease the transition.
...
Some royalists who spoke to Asia Times Online expressed fears that the UDD could during the succession process ramp up its protests and criticism of the Privy Council's role in a bid to complicate the royal succession.

... [below paragraph appears later but is added here for relevance]

Another case scenario foresees Vajiralongkorn playing a more immediate role after, as expected, his name is forwarded by the Privy Council as the next king. In recent years he has shared time living between Thailand and Germany, where he maintains a residence. Yet people known widely as his close associates have in recent months more actively prepared for the royal transition, according to some Bangkok-based diplomats, officials and a senior ruling Democrat party politician.

BP: There will be the official mourning period  but also an unofficial one. For the first 100 or so days (and perhaps longer), there will just be complete and utter shock, but after this well BP has no idea. No one really knows exactly the order of what will happen and when. A successor who is quickly named and strongly backed by all would help ease this transition. If there is any delay, there could be protests - not necessarily UDD either - but am less certain there will be a long delay in the naming now. Nevertheless, there is likely to be heavy behind-the-scenes positoning and discussions before the coronation. BP is not as pessismistic as before that things will get out of hand, as certainity who the successor will be grows and the establishment moves in behind this choice. Last-minute changes can never be ruled out, but it could make things very chaotic.

After the military coup, martial law was in place for a long time and there were severe restrictions on speech. If we still have a democratically elected PM, even as a "reconciliattion" PM, things are much less likely to get out of hand. Then, we will not have martial law, but instead the Internal Security Act. There are greater restraints on the military under the Internal Security Act compared with martial law, but as noted by Crispin, the military will still have a lot of power (then of course the whole subject will be "national security" so even without laws they will act anyway). If the military do not use their power wisely it will be a recipe for chaos. Rumors will be spread, but shutting down/severely restricting communications will justy cause more panic and uncertainity. The longer we are in an "extrordinary situation", the more panic there will be.

Problems can also arise if authority is quickly exerted and people start to act like nothing has changed in regards to the monarchy. Keeping silent and not being transparent may have been accepted in the past and will be tolerated to a certain extent in the immediate aftermath, but after the naming and the coronation things will need to change. Of course, this is where you will get the tension. BP is less concerned about the immediate aftermath, it is a few months down the track where problems are likely to arise.

h/t to a number of readers.

P.S. There is also an interesting "letter to the editor" in Asia Times by the DG of the Department of Information of the Foreign Ministry

Shawn W Crispin's article (Thailand mulls royal succession, October 19) raises a few issues that need to be clarified. First, it tries to make the issue of royal succession in Thailand a mysterious one, full of questions and uncertainty. There is, in fact, nothing to speculate about. Those knowledgeable about Thailand would know that there are clearly stipulated rules, both in the Palace Law on Succession and the Thai constitution regarding the issue. Indeed, the relevant provisions in the current constitution - similar to previous ones, including the 1997 constitution - lay out the specific roles of the Privy Council, National Assembly and cabinet. Second, the Thai lese-majeste law is not accurately understood. As part of the country's criminal code, the law is there to protect the monarchy which is one of the Thailand's principal institutions and integral to the country's national security. It is necessary also because Thai law and convention do not provide for the monarchy to take legal action against the people nor allow them to act in their own defense. While the Criminal Procedure Code allows anyone who finds a suspected lese-majeste act to lodge a complaint, such a complaint must be handled in accordance with due legal process. To ensure its proper enforcement, the government is also in the process of providing clearer guidelines on its application. As it is though, the law is not aimed at curbing freedom of speech and expression nor the legitimate exercise of academic freedom including the debates about the monarchy as an institution. Amidst the on-going intense political differences, apparent attempts to politicize the monarchy for political ends seem to have unduly gained momentum. Those who follow developments in the country are therefore asked to be more careful in differentiating facts from rumors.

BP: Like most things from the Foreign Ministry, yawn. On lese-majeste, well we have been hearing about these "guidelines" since the beginning of the year. We'll probably be waiting a little longer and what is important is whether they mean anything (i.e if someone makes a LM complaint that the police and the prosecutors follow the guidelines).

On nothing to speculate about, there is plenty to speculate about. No one knows the timing and exactly what will happen, as stated above.