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The Bangkok Post:
BP: Had a quick glance through the Thai media and the bold part above seems correct. For example, Siam Rath on what Panitan says นายปณิธาน กล่าวต่อว่า กรณีที่เขาปราบปรามอย่างเด็ดขาด คิดว่าก็เป็นอีกหนึ่งแนวทางที่เป็นประโยชน์กับประเทศไทย. Saw this story a few days ago and was a little surprised that the Abhisit government was considering adopting the Sri Lankan government strategy used against the Tamil Tigers particularly the tough crackdown part. Just at the time of writing this blog post, BP sees that Political Prisoners in Thailand got there first so wanted to repeat everything they wrote, so suggest you read that post as well for some more background material. To be clear, merely considering adopting measures used in other countries is certainly not a bad idea particularly as Sri Lanka has had recent success against the Tamils. Nevertheless, it is important to note exactly what the Sri Lankans did (and also the consequences), the differences between the two situations, and the stated Democrat-led government's solutions to the violence in the Deep South. VOA on what the UN had to say:
CBC on the EU threatening to suspend Sri Lanka's special trading rights because of the government action towards the Tamil Tigers:
BP: There are also a number of differences between the situations in Sri Lanka and the Deep South of Thailand. First, it was against the Tamils, about whom to be frank not that many people care about. Now, you may say that no one cares about the ethnic Malays, but it is not their ethnicity that matters, it is their religion. Do you think if the Thai government starting killing hundreds, if not thousands, of Muslims openly there would not be protests in Indonesia and perhaps elsewhere? There were protests in Indonesia after the Tak Bai incident in 2005. Simply put, the consequences are greater and the remaining insurgents/terrorists would likely receive increased support overseas (just think of the YouTube videos and it will be Tak Bai X 20). Second, the Tamil Tigers were publicly known and were identified. They also had territory so the Sri Lankan government knew who to go after. It was really a military assault against an identifiable target with territory. The insurgents in the Deep South are not known in the sense they are not known to belong to any one group. There is no identifiable leader to kill for a "symbolic" victory. Now, you have read the above, you also have Asia Times on what Abhisit has said is the government approach:
Then, Abhisit in June as per the Bangkok Post:
BP: The counterinsurgency policy that the Sri Lankan government adopted is the Roman method, as supported by Luttwak (see here for more details). This is a military approach and is basically kill and round up the enemy into camps. The tough crackdown approach used by the Sri Lankans is not in line with the position that justice and human rights are key/integral. Perhaps, it is just thinking out loud and rhetoric by Panitan, but the mixed messages are confusing.
Related StoriesMUGGED FROM A DEEP SLEEP (story by RWDB - JF Beck) Things Getting Better in the Deep South? (story by Bangkok Pundit) Raids in the Deep South (story by Bangkok Pundit) Thailand to Talk With Insurgents: Part 2 (story by Bangkok Pundit) New TV Station for Thailand (story by Bangkok Pundit) Corruption in Thailand (story by Bangkok Pundit) Comments
I think Thai govt would gladly apply any level of force if it knew where, and it would get full support of the general population,too, minus relatively few human rights activists.
what Abhisit (and Panitan) say is largely irrelevant to what the military actually do ... Abhisit seems to know what should be done, he just doesnt have the intelligence to organise himself into a position where he matters see my comment on your previous post
The situation in Thailand's south is not the same as the situation in Siri Lanka. The Tamils had a well organized army, air force and navy, courts, police force, laws etc. If Thailand escalates the fighting the insurgents, if you feel comfortable with that term, will seek aid from outside radical muslim sources and then the situation will get really really nasty. It may slow things initially but eventually the minority the government is fighting will become heavily armed and most likely more violent and militant.
Eventually the fighters will grow out of it. Chopping off people's heads and blowing up motorcycles is fun for only so long, and they don't have support for these methods among general population and local leadership. |
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