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Thailand to emulate Sri Lanka in Deep South?

Thailand to emulate Sri Lanka in Deep South?
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Oct. 27 2009 - 02:15 pm
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The Bangkok Post:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday held talks with his Sri Lankan counterpart, Ratnasiri Wickramanayaka, on the Sri Lankan government's success in putting down the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam movement.

Acting government spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn said the government was interested in the negotiation approaches used by Sri Lanka and its measures to squeeze the Tamil Tigers' sources of funding.

Strengthening cooperation with neighbouring countries in keeping an eye on separatist movements outside the country was another interesting approach, Mr Panitan said.

These measures were maintained in tandem with pressuring the Tamil Tiger rebels to engage in talks with the national government to end the violence. Tough crackdowns were also key to Sri Lanka's success in its fight against the rebels, which should serve as a good lesson for Thailand, the spokesman said.

BP: Had a quick glance through the Thai media and the bold part above seems correct. For example, Siam Rath on what Panitan says นายปณิธาน กล่าวต่อว่า กรณีที่เขาปราบปรามอย่างเด็ดขาด คิดว่าก็เป็นอีกหนึ่งแนวทางที่เป็นประโยชน์กับประเทศไทย. Saw this story a few days ago and was a little surprised that the Abhisit government was considering adopting the Sri Lankan government strategy used against the Tamil Tigers particularly the tough crackdown part. Just at the time of writing this blog post, BP sees that Political Prisoners in Thailand got there first so wanted to repeat everything they wrote, so suggest you read that post as well for some more background material. 

To be clear, merely considering adopting measures used in other countries is certainly not a bad idea particularly as Sri Lanka has had recent success against the Tamils. Nevertheless, it is important to note exactly what the Sri Lankans did (and also the consequences), the differences between the two situations, and the stated Democrat-led government's solutions to the violence in the Deep South.

VOA on what the UN had to say:

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights is calling for an independent, international investigation of possible war crimes committed during the last few months of the war in Sri Lanka. The UN agency says there should be a full inquiry into what did or did not happen during the final stages of the country's long-lasting civil war.  
...
"It seems that more clarity is likely to emerge about who did what to whom and whether or not war crimes, crimes against humanity and other very serious human rights abuses were committed by one or both sides," says Colville.

An estimated 6500 people were reportedly killed and 14,000 wounded during the last few months of the war earlier this year.

CBC on the EU threatening to suspend Sri Lanka's special trading rights because of the government action towards the Tamil Tigers:

Sri Lanka's commitment to human rights is linked to trade incentives on nearly $2 billion worth of goods it exports to the EU — the world's largest consumer market.

...
Human rights groups have urged Sri Lanka to free nearly 300,00 minority Tamil war refugees from military-run camps before monsoon rains create serious health problems.

The refugees were forced into the camps earlier this year after fleeing the final months of the government's war with the Tamil Tiger rebels

Obama:

President Barack Obama Wednesday urged Sri Lanka to stop "indiscriminate shelling" of civilians and the Tamil Tiger rebels to surrender, warning of a humanitarian "catastrophe" otherwise.

"Without urgent action, this humanitarian crisis could turn into a catastrophe," Obama told reporters, with the United Nations estimating that up to 50,000 civilians may be trapped in the ferocious Sri Lankan fighting.

BP: There are also a number of differences between the situations in Sri Lanka and the Deep South of Thailand.

First, it was against the Tamils, about whom to be frank not that many people care about. Now, you may say that no one cares about the ethnic Malays, but it is not their ethnicity that matters, it is their religion.  Do you think if the Thai government starting killing hundreds, if not thousands, of Muslims openly there would not be protests in Indonesia and perhaps elsewhere? There were protests in Indonesia after the Tak Bai incident in 2005. Simply put, the consequences are greater and the remaining insurgents/terrorists would likely receive increased support overseas (just think of the YouTube videos and it will be Tak Bai X 20).

Second, the Tamil Tigers were publicly known and were identified. They also had territory so the Sri Lankan government knew who to go after. It was really a military assault against an identifiable target with territory. The insurgents in the Deep South are not known in the sense they are not known to belong to any one group. There is no identifiable leader to kill for a "symbolic" victory.

Now, you have read the above, you also have Asia Times on what Abhisit has said is the government approach:

Abhisit's statement on December 30 asserting that justice and human rights will be integral to the resolution of the insurgency in the country's southern regions gave a measure of hope to many that Thai security forces would under a new administration be held more accountable for their actions.

Then, Abhisit in June as per the Bangkok Post:

"Let me reiterate that my government's approach is based on the belief that the key to peace and security is justice and opportunities," he said.

BP:  The counterinsurgency policy that the Sri Lankan government adopted is the Roman method, as supported by Luttwak (see here for more details). This is a military approach and is basically kill and round up the enemy into camps. The tough crackdown approach used by the Sri Lankans is not in line with the position that justice and human rights are key/integral. Perhaps, it is just thinking out loud and rhetoric by Panitan, but the mixed messages are confusing.



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Comments



by StanG
on 10/27/2009 04:37 pm
http://siampolitics.wordpress.com/

I think Thai govt would gladly apply any level of force if it knew where, and it would get full support of the general population,too, minus relatively few human rights activists.




by davidb98
on 10/27/2009 07:28 pm

what Abhisit (and Panitan) say is largely irrelevant to what the military actually do ...

Abhisit seems to know what should be done, he just doesnt have the intelligence to organise himself into a position where he matters

see my comment on your previous post




by Ricefield Radio
on 10/27/2009 11:24 pm
http://ricefieldradio.com

The situation in Thailand's south is not the same as the situation in Siri Lanka. The Tamils had a well organized army, air force and navy, courts, police force, laws etc. If Thailand escalates the fighting the insurgents, if you feel comfortable with that term, will seek aid from outside radical muslim sources and then the situation will get really really nasty. It may slow things initially but eventually the minority the government is fighting will become heavily armed and most likely more violent and militant.


by StanG
on 10/28/2009 08:42 am
http://siampolitics.wordpress.com/

Eventually the fighters will grow out of it. Chopping off people's heads and blowing up motorcycles is fun for only so long, and they don't have support for these methods among general population and local leadership.




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