1		4	Federico, Red shirts, civil war, thailand, violence

Federico Ferrara, an academic from the National University of Singapore, has written a Facebook note speculating whether there will be a civil war in Thailand. Tumbler covered Federico's Facebook note, but if you don't have Facebook then you can't read it. With Ferrara's permission, the note entitled "Is Thailand Headed for Civil War?" is reproduced below:

In the past couple of days I was asked by Patrick Winn of the Global Post to comment on the likelihood that Thailand might be headed for a civil war (see http://www.globalpost.com/ dispatch/thailand/100424/r ed-shirts-thai-army). Because Patrick only had space for a couple of quotes, here is the full text of my answer (the prose was slightly amended).

When we talk about "civil war," it's important to define what it is we are talking about. Not to get too academic on this, but generally the definition of a "civil war" in the literature is taken to mean three things: 1) Violent conflict that lasts for some time (not a few days); 2) At least 1000 deaths per year; and 3) The weaker side inflicts on the stronger side at least 5% of the total fatalities [some say 10%].

Is Thailand at risk of finding itself in this situation? Possibly. The risk, however, is less of a war between civilians (yellow v. red) than it is that of a war between different parts of the Thai state. Most ominously, the violence on April 22 and on April 10 shows that there are deep splits within the security forces (between most of the police and parts of army on one side and the rest of the army on the other). Given the firepower and strength of the two sides, the conflict definitely has the potential to create mass casualties.

That being said, I don't think that a real "civil war" per the definition is especially likely, in the sense that the two sides of the security forces are unlikely to engage in open warfare with one another. The greater likelihood is that there might be more acts of sabotage by one/both groups but only sporadic and relatively low intensity fighting between one another in riot situations.

Whatever violence occurs from now on is less likely to take the form of a civil war than it is to take the form of a short-lived government-initiated crackdown of the red shirts (perhaps aided by yellow vigilantes 1976-style). At that point, there are several plausible scenarios:

1) The government quickly puts down the demonstrations; pro-red forces in army and police temporarily fade away;

2) The government encounters successful resistance and resigns; pro-establishment forces work behind the scenes to get a new government not too hostile to their interests;

3) The government puts down the red shirts in Bangkok but red shirts widen the front to other provinces;

4) Crackdown fails and red shirts seize the state with the aid of pro-red security forces.

Among these scenarios, I would say (1) and (2) are by far the most likely. Revolution (4) at this point is a very remote possibility. The only scenario that potentially leads to civil war is (3), provided that the red shirts' effort to widen the front is accompanied by wholesale mutiny by parts of the security forces (not just demonstrations in Isan). This is, I believe, extremely unlikely.

A further complication is represented by the possibility of a coup. In my estimation, however, the likelihood of a coup is greater AFTER a successful crackdown, not before. The reason is that the army already has vast latitude to launch a crackdown; because of the bloodshed that such crackdown is likely to produce, it is much more convenient for the army to stage one in a context where it has the appearance of acting under the civilian leadership. In the event that the crackdown proves bloody and deeply unpopular, the army can subsequently blame the civilian government and take over with the usual excuse of "restoring order" and "protecting the unity of the nation." Unless the coup is staged for the specific purpose of removing Anupong, it just doesn't make sense for the army to seize power and THEN crack down.

To sum up, though Thailand is at an extreme risk of experiencing more violence, the possibility of a civil war remains quite remote.