IDC, Predictions, Asian, Mobile, Industry, 2010

A recent IDC press release  provided a number of predictions for the telecoms industry in Asia in 2010.

Below is selected text from the mobile predictions with comment.

Smartphones in Emerging Markets will Rise

The key driver of smartphones in the emerging markets is the increasing sophistication of mobile users. By the end of 2009, mobile penetration exceeded 50% in China and approached 40% in India. Replacement users are expected to form over 70% of handset demand in China in 2010, up from 50% in 2008. Shipments of converged devices are likewise expected to grow from 7.5% of all shipments in 2008 to 13% in 2010.

Evidence that Thailand is buying and shipping more smartphones comes from the Bangkok Post but, as mentioned before, smartphones are currently a very small share of the country’s total mobile market.

With devices not subsidized by carriers (as happens in the UK) it will take major price revisions for smartphone usage to become anything like mainstream in Thailand.

The March of ‘Droids

Android arrived in the APEJ region in the first quarter of 2009, and IDC expects the operating system (OS) to make a big leap forward in 2010, when shipments are predicted to swell to over 2 million units.

By 2013, Google’s offering is projected to become the third largest mobile OS in the region, with shipments hitting over 8 million units especially as more leading telecom operators pick up Android smartphones.

As blogged previously, Android is an interesting proposition for Thailand. It has much in common with iPhone – apps, for example – put without the hefty price and glamorous image.

It remains to be seen whether a budget handset market can exist in Thailand. Most consumers with the desire and wallet for a smartphone are likely to go with an iPhone, while those looking for a cheaper option may choose BlackBerry.

How can  Android generate sizeable market share in Thailand?

Mobile Broadband Driving Data Traffic – The Perfect Storm

As fixed broadband subscribers come to a slower growth after nearly reaching saturation, telecom operators are looking at mobile broadband as the key in growing revenue. Fixed broadband is tied to per household — each household is likely to only have one fixed broadband subscription for sharing, while mobile broadband is tied to per person usage.

As such, mobile broadband services have a much bigger market for growth, especially with the increasing popularity of smartphones and social media sites like Facebook and Twitter.

3G is the critical fact in driving mobile broadband in Thailand. That said, the AIS’ recent claim that there are 12 million mobile internet users (see here) and prediction for 6 million new subscribers this year is evidence that consumers are ready thought the technology is not.

Long Term Evolution – Building the Intelligent “X” Society

Long Term Evolution (LTE) is being promoted by the industry as the all-IP migration path for UMTS and EV-DO operators, and as the next step in migration to a future IMT-2000 Advanced or 4G architecture. IDC believes that most early LTE deployments in Asia/Pacific will occur at 3G networks that are already suffering serious utilization problems and need bandwidth relief, which LTE should be able to deliver.

Early trials are expected in Australia, Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China, and Singapore in 2010–2011. LTE will play a large part in resolving some of the existing bandwidth and capacity constraints.

Thailand is a unique case when it comes to mobile technology and networks. The country is still waiting for proper 3G, as of yet there is no guidance as to when this may arrive, so LTE is an even more distant prospect.

Thailand is definitely the black sheep of the Asian mobile internet family as evidenced by a recent blog post from Thomas Crampton which showed Korea, Japan and Hong Kong boast the world’s fastest internet speeds.

So whilst the statistics are interesting for Asia in general, expect things to be a little different evolve slower in Thailand